Is This the Year for the Holiday Rebound?
It’s not surprising that shoppers have a lot of their minds heading into the holiday season. Whether keeping tabs on inflation and interest rates, potential supply chain glitches or political developments, consumers are focused on a lot of things as they make plans for the festive season.
New research from Circana affirms that shoppers remain distracted during what’s shaped up to be a decade of disruption, but retailers and brands can also be heartened by consumers’ demonstrated resilience. “This year’s holiday comes with some optimism and some distractions. As consumers settle in, with food prices rising at lower levels and better values being offered, they plan to spend a little more for holiday,” Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisory at Chicago-based Circana, told Progressive Grocer.
According to Circana’s annual holiday purchase intentions consumer survey, people plan to spend $771 on holiday shopping this year, up 2% from 2023 but 2% below their plans in 2021. That seemingly middle-of-the-road approach fits with other findings that reflect a slight rebound in outlook and purchases: This year, 57% of shoppers are feeling more positive about their personal financial situation than last year, 64% said they are looking forward to the upcoming holiday stretch and 66% see the holidays as a break from “everything that’s happening in the world.”
On that last point, consumers’ view that holidays are a respite of source from everyday stress may translate at the point of sale. Nearly 40% of respondents reported that they intend to buy more gifts for others to bring them joy during challenging times and 28% are buying more gifts for themselves as a sort of retail therapy, a figure that’s higher than last year but again not as high as the post-lockdown year of 2021.
“The other key to an optimistic holiday for retailers is the growth of consumers stating they plan to return to self-gifting. The past few years we were missing that part of holiday spend and it is critical for growth. The election, severe weather and world events have been a constant distraction these past few weeks, but overall the resilience of the consumer has remained,” added Cohen.
The survey also sought to determine the effects of early shopping, which kicks off especially early this year with mid-October sales events hosted by Amazon, Target and Walmart. According to the Circana research, some people did some of their holiday shopping during this year’s summer retail promotional events and more plan to take advantage of fall promotional events than in either of the past two years. That said, nearly a quarter (24%) of survey participants think they will get the best deals on Black Friday.
