Familiar Refrain for Grocery Inflation Rate
It’s not Groundhog Day, but it can seem like it when reviewing Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). According to government data, inflation is holding steady and remains well off its highs, yet prices continue to hover a little higher.
The overall CPI edged up a slight 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, the same rate as the each of the previous three months. The food index ticked higher at the same pace, with food at home up a slight 0.1% for the month. On a yearly basis, the general CPI is up 2.6% before seasonal adjustment, while grocery inflation increased 1.1% year-over-year (YoY).
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According to BLS, five of the six major grocery indexes posted hikes in October. The CPI for both cereals and bakery products and dairy and related products increased 1%. Other categories experiencing higher CPI included fruits and vegetables (+0.4%), nonalcoholic beverages (+0.4%) and other food at home (+0.1%)
On the other side, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs dipped 1.2% last month. Egg prices, which had been hit by recent production related spikes, decreased 6.4 % in that time frame.
Andy Harig, VP, tax, trade, sustainability and policy development at FMI - The Food Industry Association, put the data in perspective. “Today’s CPI numbers illustrate once again that − while the process of bringing down overall inflation continues to be a work in progress − food price inflation remains on a solid path. The October numbers for food-at-home show that prices increased just 0.1% for the month and fell to 1.1% year over year,” he noted.
He also pointed to recent efforts to provide relief, from Thanksgiving meal deals to loyalty program perks like fuel points and digital coupons. “With Thanksgiving around the corner, the good news for consumers is that many traditional items will cost less than last year. According to USDA and BLS data, turkey prices are down by as much as 11% this year. Additionally, ham prices are projected to drop 2.5%, while potatoes are expected to cost 3.5% less. Other items like apples (-13%), fresh cranberries (-5%) and frozen pies (-0.7%) are also expected to be more affordable,” he reported.
