Grocery Inflation Way Down in ’23, But What's Going on With Egg Prices?

Grocery inflation came in at 1.3% for 2023, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That 12-month rate is significantly lower than the 11.8% CPI for the 2022 calendar year, a signal that inflation remains sticky but is more in check.

The CPI for food at home ticked up 0.1% in December, the same rate as in November. Comparatively, food away from home rose 0.3%, following a 0.4% bump the previous month.

[Read more: “USDA’s Top Predictions for 2024”]

The price of eggs, while not making the same kind of headlines as in January 2023, did spike 8.9% in December, propelling the overall meat, poultry, fish and eggs index to increase by 0.5% last month. The higher egg prices are linked to a recent outbreak of avian flu. 

Elsewhere, the CPI for nonalcoholic beverages went up by 0.2%, dairy and related products edged 0.3% higher and “other” food at home increased a scant 0.1%. Cereals and bakery products experienced a 0.3% decline in prices in December, while fruits and vegetables went down 0.1% in that time frame.

Overall inflation came in higher than expected in December, a peak shopping time. The CPI was 0.3% for the month, slightly above the 0.2% that analysts projected, and was mainly driven by higher costs for shelter.

Andy Harig, VP of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development at Washington, D.C.-based FMI - The Food Industry Association, said that the fresh government data supports the notion of a more stable grocery environment. "The recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) report brings welcome news for Americans looking for an easing of inflation amidst recent economic challenges. Notably, the inflation rate for foo at home has slowed to just 1.3% year-over-year, remarkable progress from just a year ago and signifying a positive trend towards market stabilization in the new year, he said.

“Grocery shoppers are noticing this change as well,” Harig continued. “According to a recent analysis of FMI shopper data, weekly household grocery spending has remained stable since the summer of 2023 while concerns related to escalating food retail prices have eased slightly since October. As we enter 2024, there is a growing sense of optimism among shoppers regarding grocery prices in the year ahead. 

Meanwhile, new data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) shows that consumers were still spending, albeit cautiously, in December as prices remained slightly above normal. According to NRF, sales at grocery and beverage stores rose 0.84% last month, and increased 2.39% for the year, on an unadjusted basis.