Overall Grocery Sales Slow, But E-Comm Faring Well

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Nov. 2024 results

U.S. grocery sales ebbed a bit in November, reaching $74.92 billion compared to $75.06 billion in October, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The government’s advance estimates show that grocery sales last month were up from the $73.65 billion in sales rung up in November 2023.

The 0.2% monthly drop reflects some ongoing wobbliness in the grocery sector, at a time when prices remain somewhat elevated. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index for food at home rose 0.5% in November.

Overall retail sales in November increased 0.7%, according to the Census Bureau. That uptick continued momentum from the 0.5% lift in October.

Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, said the comprehensive sales trends reflect steady consumer behavior, especially around the holidays. “These numbers combined with better-than-expected October sales are evidence that consumer spending continues to fuel the economy. Job and wage gains, modest inflation and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending,” he remarked. “This growth comes even though the late timing of Thanksgiving delayed the beginning of the busiest shopping portion of the holiday season and pushed Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday sales into December. The season’s pace of spending is clearly on track to reach our forecast.”

Meanwhile, other new data shows that grocery e-commerce sales picked up steam ahead of the busiest time of the year. The Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopper Survey released earlier this month revealed a 17.8% year-over-year (YoY) boost in e-grocery sales during November, as those online sales hit $9.6 billion. Notably, the new record of 77.8 million households that bought groceries online in November 2024 broke the previous record high set during April 2020, the first full month of the pandemic.

According to Brick Meets Click/Mercatus analysts, the increase was fueled by a broader monthly active user base and slightly higher order frequency rates. Overall spending per order was unchanged compared to 2023, the latest report indicates.

Also within the digital grocery world, delivery sales spiked 22% YoY and now comprise 40.6% of all e-grocery sales. Pickup fulfillment rose 8% compared to last year, accounting for 41.3% of overall on-line grocery sales. Ship-to-home represents 18.1% of e-comm in grocery.

“Supermarkets experienced a significant surge in their monthly active user base, benefitting from widespread and deep discounts on membership and subscription programs offered by both national and regional grocers throughout November,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “And, while that’s a positive sign for supermarkets, the race to retain customers and grow share-of-wallet with them is only intensifying among rivals.”

Added Mark Fairhurst, chief growth officer at Mercatus: "Driving larger orders and fostering repeat purchases requires creating a more personalized and seamless online grocery shopping experience. By offering tailored product recommendations based on customer preferences and lifestyles, alongside easy-to-use rewards programs and intuitive navigation, grocers can strengthen customer loyalty, build trust, and sustain long-term growth in the online grocery space."