Holiday Food Prices Up 7% From Last Year: Report

According to a data analysis and forecast prepared by market research firm Category Partners, in spite of slower food price inflation leading to smaller price increases, the price of purchasing Christmas dinner at a supermarket will be about 7% higher than in 2022. The forecast was developed from NielsenIQ (NIQ) supermarket sales data collected from more than 35,000 U.S. food stores.

The data analysis showed that a basic Christmas dinner in 2023 purchased from a supermarket for a family of four will cost around $50.56, versus $47.25 in 2022. That’s 18.5% higher than at Christmas two years ago.

[Read more: “4 Things to Know About Shoppers’ Holiday Spending Plans”]

Even with double-digit price increases since 2021, inflation-weary consumers should still have a happy holiday.

“Slowing food price inflation across the supermarket is good news for consumers,” noted Tom Barnes, CEO of Category Partners, which is based in Idaho Falls, Idaho, with offices in Chicago and Wenatchee, Wash. “The data confirms that while prices remain elevated, the alarming food price inflation we saw two years ago has moderated.”

To forecast the average price of a Christmas 2023 dinner, Category Partners made use of NIQ supermarket data for the most recent 52 and four-week periods through Dec. 2. Historical price changes between Thanksgiving and Christmas were employed to predict price trends. A “sample” meal was then priced using historical data. The sample meal projected the cost of buying a meal from a supermarket for a family of four, including dinner rolls, salad with dressing, potatoes, beans, stuffing, ham and a store-made pie.

Barnes noted that according to national NIQ supermarket data, total supermarket prices this year are up 6.6%. However, price increases vary considerably by supermarket department. While seafood (down 1.7%), produce (up 2.2%) and meat (up 2.4%) have had negative or slower-than-average price inflation over the past year, grocery prices (up 10.5%) and bakery (up 9.5%) showed higher-than-average price inflation.

“Consumers should be pleasantly surprised this season when shopping for their holiday meals in most of the fresh departments at their local supermarkets,” he added. “Inflation is a constant concern as consumers try to make ends meet. The slower-than-average inflation in the produce, meat and seafood departments means consumers could be a little more merry this season.”

Barnes continued that the best way for shoppers to deal with food inflation is to be selective when deciding which items to include in their Christmas meal plans. “Price increases vary dramatically by item, and consumers can reduce holiday food costs by being flexible,” he advised. “For example, the average price per pound for beef steak is $9.43 per pound, up 6.8% compared to last year. Comparatively, the price for beef brisket is $4.52, down 1.0% from last year. A consumer could also opt for ham, which on average sells for $2.42 per pound, or turkey, at $2.96 per pound.”